Financial Surprises of 2023

by Warren Seah

In the year 2023, the financial world witnessed several unexpected events.

Stock Market Performance

Despite a sluggish 2022, the stock market made a remarkable comeback. The S&P 500 index saw a substantial return of 25%, while the Nasdaq Composite experienced an impressive increase of over 40%.

Interest Rates

Interestingly, short-term interest rates rose at a much higher rate than initial forecasts predicted. However, long Treasury yields remained relatively stable throughout the year, ending close to where they began.

Cryptocurrency Boom

Bitcoin, often criticized, defied expectations by experiencing a resurgence. Its value more than doubled in 2023, surpassing $43,000.

What Lies Ahead in 2024?

As we dive into the new year, questions arise regarding the future of stocks and the Federal Reserve’s actions. Will stocks continue to flourish in 2024? Will the Federal Reserve pivot and considerably reduce short rates by a percentage point or more?

Join Our Forecasting Challenge

Participate in our 22nd annual forecasting challenge and put your predictive skills to the test. Remember: only one answer per question is allowed, although some questions may have multiple correct answers. It’s worth noting that no one has ever achieved a perfect score!

Win Exciting Prizes

Submitting Your Entry

All submissions must be made exclusively through the provided online form. We regret to inform you that we do not accept paper submissions.

Submission Deadline

Make sure to submit your entry by Jan. 1, 2024.

Andrew Bary’s Choices

Andrew Bary has made his predictions as part of the challenge. Here are his choices:


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